Abstract Description: As climate change projections indicate increasing variability in weather patterns, integrating renewable energy sources with robust storage solutions becomes critical for energy security and sustainability. This study explores the nexus of green hydrogen production and hydropower systems, focusing on its implications under rapid load growth and future climate change scenarios that impact hydropower availability in the Pacific Northwest region. Foregone hydrogeneration, the potential energy that remains unused during periods of low demand or grid limitations, presents a significant opportunity for effective energy utilization. Green hydrogen, produced via electrolysis using surplus renewable electricity, emerges as a flexible, zero-emission energy carrier suitable for diverse applications, including transportation, industry, and power generation.
This study's analysis is based on results from the Northwest Power and Conservation Council's 2027 resource adequacy assessments, which provide comprehensive insights into the region's energy supply and demand dynamics. Foregone hydrogeneration was calculated using the Council's GENESYS (Generation Evaluation System) model, a constrained economic dispatch model that employs Monte Carlo sampling to assess the effects of uncertainty in demand, stream flows, solar/wind generation, and forced outages.
Two global climate scenarios were used to assess the impacts on hydrogeneration: one reflecting moderate climate change effects and another representing more severe impacts. In these future scenarios, hydrogeneration is expected to face increased variability due to altered precipitation patterns, changing snowpack levels, and fluctuating steam flows. Leveraging foregone hydrogeneration for green hydrogen production offers a robust and resilient strategy to manage these fluctuations. Furthermore, this approach provides a pathway to transform excess hydropower into storable hydrogen, minimizing energy wastage and enhancing grid stability. Stored hydrogen can then be utilized during peak demand periods or converted back to electricity, thereby ensuring energy reliability amid changing hydrological conditions.
Findings suggest that integrating foregone hydrogeneration with green hydrogen production can significantly bolster the resilience of renewable energy systems against climate-induced variability. The importance of future research directions is underscored, as they are identified to enhance efficiency and scalability, including advancements in electrolysis technology, hydrogen storage solutions, and grid integration methods.
