Retired, Division Director Retired Director of the Air Pollution Prevention and Control Division, EPA’s Office of Research & Development, NC
Humanity continues on its unsustainable trajectory. Greenhouse gas emissions, driven by population growth and an increasing demand for resource intensive goods, foods and services, are altering the planet’s climate in ways that threaten the habitability of the planet. Despite the serious impacts related to the warming already realized and the catastrophic impacts projected in the coming decades, GHG emissions and their related atmospheric concentrations continue to rise. Warming continues unabated, with evidence that the rate of such warming has accelerated in recent years. Given the hole that humanity has dug, modeling tools and recent literature, with a particular focus on the recent IPCC AR6 reports, are used to quantify the mitigation challenge and assess potential remedies. Model results identify mitigation actions needed to have a chance of limiting global warming to 2 C, and how it is probably too to limit warming to 1.5 C. Serious emission reductions must start as soon as possible, involve all countries, include emission reductions in all sectors and for all the greenhouse gases. For achieving the 1.5 C target, and probably to meet the 2 C target, Carbon Dioxide removal (CDR) technologies/practices will need to be operational at large scale. Unfortunately, given their early stage of development, and high projected costs, there is no guarantee that removing CO2 from the air will be practical at the scale needed. A unique model, En-ROADS, examines key global mitigation actions and quantifies the monumental challenge of limiting warming to below 2 C. Also examined are the different mitigation trajectories needed for developed versus developing countries, how different emission trajectories would affect warming this century, and R, D& D needs for key technologies.
